A bright point for shareholders in Tesla: Under the package of new Elon Musk companies of $ 27 billion, their fate is now intertwined with

I remember that in 2024, in response to a lawsuit from EV-Maker shareholders, the Dilayer courts nullified the famous Giga-Grant approved in January 2018. Musk and the company appealed the ruling, and the decision is now at appeal. Tesla plate intervened to make sure that if Tesla lost, the CEO will get something similar to the numbers that will sacrifice it. But this time, they hang a series of wise circumstances that are absent the first time.

Of course, the deal does not apply unless it loses Musk and Tesla at the appeal. If this happens, in light of the new repetition, he will receive a restricted shares of 96 million shares at a $ 23.34 strike, equivalent to the number when he got the giant group at the beginning of 2018. At the current TESLA price of approximately $ 309, these shares will be more than $ 27 billion. Below is the restrictions: The shares contribute to the second anniversary of the grant, or early August 2027, but only if Musk serves that entire period either the CEO, or the head of products development or operations. In addition, he cannot sell any of those acquired shares up to five years from the date of the award, or August 3, 2030.

It is clear that the goal of managers is to keep Musk responsible for strengthening the opportunities that he will offer a great time for his promises to the upcoming robots, which have not yet been, self -driving programs, and human robots. But for Tesla holders who began to lose faith with the arrival of gravitational pledges and the structure of the plan begins, to use the vulgar often in the plans of the CEO, the “alignment” of the fate of musk largely more than that than the first program

The 2018 Musk Plan is rewarded for achieving gains in the huge evaluation with a noble speech

Musk Musk Awards, which have pledged 1 % of Tesla shares, each were awarded with an additional $ 50 billion assessment. The starting point was 100 billion dollars – doubling from the market ceiling at the time. If Musk is a maximum of 650 billion dollars, the number that looked very unlikely at the time, it has collected 12 % of Tesla shares. The frame is similar to the process of opening a safety deposit fund; Getting 1 % new “two key” requires, first hitting the ghost of the evaluation, and the second, achieving 12 out of 18 common goals for revenues, broken and international strike. The goal of profits before benefits, taxes, destruction and higher consumption was 14 billion dollars, and the highest sales number is $ 175 billion.

Within only three and a half years-in mid-2011-ring musk bell. First, the maximum market market of $ 650 billion, later registered all profit criteria before benefits, taxes, depreciation and consumption and completed this achievement by reaching an intermediate ghost of $ 75 billion in general enough to meet the requirements of 12 operating measures. Thus, musk got the full surprise.

The great concept defect: Musk continued to make great promises for incredibly profitable new products that dazzled investors. This helped to send the stock towards the sky, which helps it achieve the evaluation part. Revenue requirements and Ebitda were relatively easy. Therefore, the combination of the exaggeration of the share price without a speech and the lack of having to provide wonderful basic profit numbers won the day.

To be fair, Tesla ceiling remains at about $ 1 trillion three times its level when Musk got one percent of a stock grant, and 50 % higher than where the last $ 650 billion. The problem: It is impossible to get any idea about what Tesla deserves in the long run. And if it becomes clear that a car bending company is mainly, or if the requirements of Capex are required to build the musk company, insight, in addition to intense competition, make it profitable marginalized, the value of Tesla may return to something like where you stand when Musk apparently seized the impossible asseptive package at the beginning of 2018, when Tesla shares are traded at 23.34 Dollars.

Under the new deal, if Tesla stock tanks are large, MUSK does not receive money

The original plan had a great weakness. Musk got 12 % of the shares in advance. Therefore, even if the shares fell to the original strike price of $ 23.34, which prompted the market value in Tesla to $ 75 billion, it still has $ 9 billion in stocks (12 % of 75 billion dollars). The shareholders had borne greatly, and obtained the postal code for that.

But the new plan guarantees that it cannot happen. Is it completely impossible for Tesla to fall so far? never. Just take a look at its current basics. The original plan was not logical unless Tesla reached the operating objectives stipulated to stimulate grants, and continued to decline in revenues and profits quickly from there. In other words, the basics had to grow to become the evaluation. Musk was primarily charged for great things to come.

This did not happen. In the first two quarters of this year, Tesla’s sales at an annual rate of 84 billion dollars were a little bit of $ 75 billion in the penis a few years ago. In the same six months, Ebitda was stuck at 12 billion dollars on an annual basis, less than $ 14 billion that opened the payment.

I recently wrote an article on “Musk Magic Premium”, which was calculated What is the value of Tesla based on its current products, and the additional value granted to the music insightful pledges– This is the installment. For the repetitive profit number for EVS and batteries today, I remove accounting gains or losses on Bitcoin’s holdings, and offering sales of regulatory credits that are likely to die because Trump’s recent withdrawal on car boxes that stop purchasing them.

During the last four quarters, the number of “militants” is $ 3.3 billion. Imagine that Musk raises this number by 8 % decent annually, with a net profit of $ 5.4 billion in 2030, which is the free year in selling stocks under the new program (if that happens). Let’s also assume that it is because it is a low growth manufacturer, Tesla calls for a much highest average car industry in 14 years.

This result would return the shares directly near the Mossor’s strike price of $ 23.34. It will be a large grant of no value, while it was under the leadership of the shares of $ 9 billion. Even if Tesla shares drop to about $ 50, and the maximum of about $ 150 billion, Musk will make much less, about $ 2.5 billion. Yes, it is good for Tesla Council to force the musk to wait a long time to get their salaries. Five years from now, we will be able to see what all these promises really deserve. If they are exhaust from the tail tube, the shareholders will suffer from a long time. But Elon Musk will suffer with them.