Apple risks 12.5 billion dollars in revenue as the judge weighs Google treatments to combat monopoly, warns jpmorgan

The Ministry of Justice requires the imposition of corrective measures after it has found a case to combat monopoly against Google that the technology giant is a monopoly in public research. The historic Doj case, which ended in 2023, accused Google of maintaining this illegal monopoly by pushing billions to devices and developers, including Apple, to be the virtual search engine. Judge Amit Mihta found Google responsible for anti -competition behavior in general research, but he still weighs the appropriate treatments.

Apple and Google have provided possible ways to the case, and Judge Amit Mihita is expected to announce his ruling on them in early August. Although Apple is not a direct part of the anti -monopoly suit in the Ministry of Justice against Google, the company may be severely affected by the results due to the cost of obtaining profit traffic (TAC) with Google.

According to what was mentioned, Google Apple is paid between 15 billion dollars and 20 billion dollars Annually to ensure that its search engine is virtual on Apple devices.

The memorandum calculates that the end of the agreement may cost Apple $ 12.5 billion annually, or about 15 % of Apple profits per share, such as the worst case. Analysts also suggested that there is medium ground, that is, Google loses uniqueness to make deals with Apple, but Apple finds a liquefaction or alternative compensation from competitors, which can be possible. The best case scenario is that the judge only requires slight adjustments to Google practices, and TAC payments remain largely intact.

JPMorgan said in note that the Central Earth scenario seemed to be the most likely result of the issue. They see a more moderate treatment as the most logical path forward, which can include changes such as increasing the user selection screens (where users choose a search engine instead of Google) or partial restrictions on the default Google status via Apple devices.

While analysts note that the unlikely scenario for the full loss of TAC revenue will be painful, Apple has significant resources to absorb alternative deals or negotiate them. The company can also look for its advertising efforts and search for its liquefaction if exclusive is reduced.

If Google is lost exclusively with Apple, it may also leave the technology giant to distribute possible deals with competitors such as Microsoft Or Duckduckgo.

In a separate note that deals with the potential impact of corrective treatments on the alphabet, analysts note that “the final impact on Google will also rely on how to solve Apple-technically and not technically to the case-in searching on Safari once Google-Doj is solved.”

While they estimated that the scenario of the worst case could display Google in a possible threat to $ 18 billion, analysts have expected that the judge will impose moderate treatments instead of the full ban on virtual agreements, which will help Google maintain a large traffic.

Apple representatives did not respond immediately to request a comment from luck.