The markets are almost sure to reduce September prices, as more presidents turn

To date – or more specifically, until Friday.

The Jobshell report at the end of last week from the Work Statistics Office delivered the double mandate to study the Federal Reserve (inflation by 2 % and the maximum employment) in acute focus. The labor market is much worse than previously realized, to 258,000 jobs that were stripped of previous estimates and paid unemployment to 4.2 %.

With two FOMC members after they created the decision to Keep the rate at the current level from 4.25 % to 4.5 %More regional bankers now suggests changing the tone.

Neil Kashkari, Chairman of the Federal Reserve at Minneapolis, is generally seen as a federal reserve member, however He said in an interview yesterday It may be time now to reduce: “There are two categories of data on which I focus: there is a set of data that I know and I have confidence, and there are data that I do not know and we will not know for a while.

“The data that I think we know is that the economy is slowing down … This means in the short term that it may become appropriate to start controlling the rate of federal funds.”

It was echoed by Mary Dali, head of the Federal Reserve at San Francisco, who told the economic summit of Anchorage yesterday at Repeated statements: “My private evaluation is that the risks facing the goals of our work and enlargement are almost balanced. Inflation and absent definitions were gradually heading down, and with the slowdown in the economy, it should continue in continuous monetary policy, but it is likely that it does not need continuous monetary policy to monetary policy.

“At the same time, I have eased the labor market. I will see an additional unwanted slowdown, especially since we know that once the labor market stumbles, it tends to decrease quickly and difficult. All this means that we will likely need to control policy in the coming months.”

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook The Federal Reserve Boston said The junction report “regarding”, adding, “These reviews are somewhat typical for transformation points.”

And most importantly, none of the presidents was Kashkari or Dali – or the ruler Cook – among the opponents of the July meeting. With the pressure on the ruler Chris Waller and a member of FOMC Michelle Bowman already for cutting, the ranks of those who are at the end of the spectrum are growing by today.

“The federal reserve rate reduction rates in September increased from 90 % to 95 % amid the transformation letter, with 60 bits per second of the discounts that the December meeting (+2.0BPS per day) referred to,” Jim Reed of Deutsche Bank referred to customers on Thursday.

While the treasury bonds collide for a few years on the news, the returns still rise in the long run with 10 years up to 4.24 % and 30 years old Up to 4.8 %.

per Fedwatch tool From the derivative platform CME collection93.4 % of the market expects the basic price to decrease to 4 % to 4.25 % in September – click the current rate. Only 6.6 % of investors expect more reservation.

Goldman Sachs had a possible counter for this conclusion that seems possible. American chief economist Jean Hatzius wrote earlier this week that his invitation is three consecutive discounts of 25 points in September, October and December (followed by two other discounts in 2026h1), but he warned: “The delay is possible if the upcoming reports showed greater than expected prices and raising in the labor market.

“But a 50 -night reduction in September is also possible if the unemployment rate increases again in the recruitment report in August or increases the initial unemployment claims from its level that is still low. Even after the front gathering on Friday, our money prices expectations are still lower than the market pricing, especially on the basis of probability.”

It could be two

If the federal reserve was aware of the “Bombeshyll” job report in real time, Professor Jeremy will come to be a federal reserve not only this month, but with two clicks.

Honorary Finance Professor at Warton College at the University of Pennsylvania wrote in a column for Wisdomtree, where he is a great economist, so that the Federal Reserve has been lured 50 bits per second.

“My next view of the Powell Pharaohs President Conference was that Powell was very honest, even before we knew Friday’s data,” Professor Segel books. “I expect the 25 -point point price to be reduced at the FOMC meeting on September 18, followed by identical movements in November and December, as the FBI’s money rate reached 3.58 % by the end of the year.

“The slower rhythm,” fixed but flexible company “, keeps hawks in the committee on the plane with acknowledgment that real activity is cooling; the average of the first real GDP is only 1.2 % at an annual rate, and front indicators such as continuous claims are higher.

Professor Siegel, like many other economists, looks at the Jackson Hall symposium later this year to get hints on monetary policy.

But until then, Professor Sigel – like some other prominent economists – believes the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to step down before his term ends.

“The independence of the Federal Reserve has long been one of the corner rooms in the American economy that works well,” he said Note last month. But in the politically charged environment, this extreme independence may face a greater threat if Powell remains in place, and the economy stumbles in the second half of the year … if the growth is slowing down and Powell has not moved enough with the price discounts, it will become the first scapegoat.

“In this case, the Republican -led conference, which is already skeptical in the central bank, can impose serious structural restrictions, including changes in the ruling authorization of the Federal Reserve or the President’s authority to remove the president.