“The negative risks” six times at its press conference yesterday – is this bad news for tomorrow’s jobs?

The markets loved by: Europe and Asia on a large scale this morning except China, where the shares fell on news An unexpected deterioration in manufacturing. More importantly, the S&P 500 is a future in the stage approximately a full percentage point, Premark.

But there was one topic that Powell continued to return to it, which is very non -positive: the “negative risks” of the labor market. Powell pointed to this phrase no less than six Times at his press conference.

“We see the negative risks in the labor market,” he told reporters. “The labor market is strong. Inflation is higher than the target. Even if you look through the effects of customs tariffs, we believe that it is still a little higher than the target. For this reason, our position is its place. But, as I mentioned, as you know, the negative risks of the labor market are definitely clear.”

This is actually a good summary of what economists see in employment data at the present time. There is close to full employment, but the recruitment market is slow and some good address numbers are masked with one -time movements in government employment and education.

Some analysts believe that employment is getting weaker, not stronger, in the coming months.

“President Powell’s reading of economic data was similar to our cars-the most prominent frequency of growth in the first half of the year, and pointed out that the labor market is still strong, but he said six times that he is facing” the risk of the negative side “, and he said that inflation is mostly more than 2 %, and that the” reasonable issue “will have an impact on only one level. Jean Hatzius and his team were told the agents in this morning memorandum.

Lawrence Verter and Brendan Stewart in Daoua Capital Markets noticed the same thing: “We have found it interesting that he has returned several times to the idea that officials are interested in the dangers on the work side of the work, and he also indicated that there is an increasing reading.

The job number (non -agricultural salaries, to give its artistic name) is scheduled to come out tomorrow. If it is weak, expect the shares to interact strongly.

“Our expectations are to weaken job growth in July and for the unemployment rate up. Perhaps this will increase fears of the Federal Reserve about the risks to the labor market, which may support more support behind the price reduction earlier in our basic line.”

Paul Donovan from UBS has Ghada note about the reason why American companies transport factories to America but do not actually create job opportunities: new factories are full of robots, not humans: “many advanced economies, including the United States and the United Kingdom, have seen that there has been an increase in manufacturing manufacturing. The capital is to replace employment.”

Here is a snapshot of the procedure before the opening bell in New York:

• S & P 500 futures contracts 1 % increased this morning, Premarket, after closing the index by 0.12 % yesterday.
• Stoxx Europe 600 0.14 % increased in early trading.
• UK FTSE 100 0.52 % increased in early trading.
• Japan Nikki 225 It was 1.02 %.
• China CSI 300 Index 1.82 % decreased.
• South Korea KosPI 0.28 % decreased.
• India Elegant 50 It was 0.08 %.
• Bitcoin It is still above 118 thousand dollars.