VIPs Brad Delong for new university graduates: do not blame artificial intelligence for working struggles – look at the economy

Delong, a professor at the University of California in Berkeley and former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury, Argue The challenges it faces in the face of youth job seekers today is driven primarily with the uncertainty in politics on a large scale and the slow-bias-not to rise in the rapid rise in artificial intelligence tools such as ChatGPT or data stimulating robots. Delong presented its analysis on July 23, about 10 days before Job report in July amazing marketsAnd revealed that The economy was much weaker It was previously believed for several months.

Entrepreneur leaders also reported worrying marks in the economy before the job report decreased in July. IBM The former Vice President and Trump Adviser Gary Cohen went on CNBC A day before the job data, indicating “warning signs below the surface”. Cohen said he attaches close attention to the rate of takeoff in Jolts monthly data, on the pretext that 150,000 lower installations were a significant sign of weak economic health.

Delong seemed to be a prophetic note, as she wrote that “uncertainty in politics” for trade, immigration, inflation and technology “business Planning”, leading to a self -enhancement cycle for employment. New expatriates to the labor market carries a decline in the dangers of aversion. In other words, the college’s graduate category for 2025 is really unlucky.

The economist has argued that uncertainty makes companies delay the main decisions – including employment – in the face of an unpredictable political environment.

He wrote: “The aversion to this risk is especially harmful to those who are at the beginning of their career, who depend on a fixed flow of novice openings to get a foot in the door.”

Delong has looked similar warnings of slowdown for years. Talk to luck In 2022 about his theory of economy, he began to flow from his book Green towards Utopia. In 2025, he wrote that the big story in the job market is not in fact Amnesty International, but it is a different thing.

Political paralysis

So, what prevents their fresh graduates from obtaining this important first job? Delong martyred Bloomberg Business Week Amanda Mall And its theory of “indiscriminate uncertainty” – a cocktail of the inability to predict about government policies, trade, immigration and inflation. Companies do not shoot; Instead, they are just waiting. Many delay the new appointments in anticipation of sudden sudden transformations in definitions, inflation rates and organizational environments. The result is the waiting and vision climate as employers, who are concerned about future economic shocks, chose to be careful not to expand. The new clutch pattern is especially hunted to the workforce.

like Previously mentioned by The intelligence of luckGoldman Sachs argued that the college certificate “safety installment” was often gone. “The modern data indicates that the labor market for new university graduates has weakened at a time when the broader health market has appeared.”

It has also found that since 1997, young workers who have no university degree have become less likely to search for work, as their participation rate has decreased by seven percentage points.

Goldman Sachs

Mall cited an analysis conducted by the New York Reserve Bank, which found that technology and design fields, including computer science, computer engineering and graphic design, are witnessing unemployment rates exceeding 7 % for new graduates.

Why does the noise miss the artificial intelligence

Although the technology sector is escalating around the capabilities of artificial intelligence to replace novice analysts or automate beginners’ tasks, Delong urged caution in appointing blame. He pointed out in his typical style, “There is still (no) difficult, not even a semi -defaulting narration that” artificial intelligence is blame “for the scarcity of job in beginners.” He pointed out that the employment of slowdown is led by broader economic powers: uncertainty, risk alienation, and changes in how companies invest.

Here again, Delong analysis is in line with the recent research of Goldman’s Hatzius. The “tracker adopting artificial intelligence”, which was issued in July, found that the unemployment rate of the professions exposed to the spontaneous organization may reconcile with the wider economy, which contradicts the concerns of mass displacement. They also noticed that there were no modern advertisements that explicitly indicate artificial intelligence as the cause, which confirms that it contains disrupting specific functions, not the entire industries.

Goldman Sachs

He said it is important, rather than employing people, companies in the technology sector boast about “devices that operate artificial intelligence”-do not get high-performance NVIDIA chips-which occupy a boom in capital investment with their investment.

“For companies, the calculus account and integration is clear and direct: Investment in the infrastructure of Amnesty International is a ticket for competitiveness in the future, while employing beginners staff is a cost that can be postponed.”

Supporting these trends is a shift far from any and all risks. Employers prefer to employ specific and less prepared needs to invest in developing new talents-that the young applicants who have fallen into a cycle where “just getting your foot in the door” is more difficult than ever. Next workers, who are concerned about uncertainty in the labor market, are less likely to change jobs, which leads to less interruption and increased recession.

Delong analysis coordinated with Goldman SACHS results on the attached decline installment with a university degree:

“With regard to the long term, the increase in the kidney premium ended, and a decrease (perhaps) began.”

For decades, he continued that a university degree was a ticket for higher profits, and the job market rewards those who have advanced skills and accreditation data. In recent years, though, “this has led to a decrease and may fall.” He added that the reasons are complicated, but ready -made meals: although the grades are still valuable, they are no longer the freshness ticket constantly to the prosperity they were before.

These comments confirm the bleak notes of the professor of the Honorary University of Connecticut Peter Torchin, who I recently spoken with luck About the decrease in the situation in the upper middle class in the twenty -first century America. When asked anywhere else he sees that this appears in modern life, Torchin said, “It is actually everywhere you look at.

He said: “Look at excessive production of university grades,” on the pretext that the decreasing installment written by Goldman and Delong is about their appearance in the low rates of enrollment at the university and the high unemployment rates in the graduates. “There is excessive production of university grades and the value of a university degree actually decreases.”

Delong extract for new graduates: Blame the risk business climate, not technology, for job problems today. Now that we knew that the economy may have been more than risk in 2025 than before, Delong’s warnings deserve to be reviewed.

Delong did not respond to the comment.

For this story, luck The artificial intelligence is used to help with a preliminary draft. Check an editor of the accuracy of the information before publishing.